| 凌成.基于三维GIS空间信息地质灾害预警模型的研究[J].矿产勘查,2024,15(7):1254-1261 |
| 基于三维GIS空间信息地质灾害预警模型的研究 |
| Research on geological disaster warning model based on 3D GIS spatial information |
| 投稿时间：2023-07-07 修订日期：2023-11-14 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202407013 |
| 中文关键词: GIS 地质灾害 预警模型 地质-气象耦合模型 |
| 英文关键词: GIS geological disasters early warning model geological-meteorological coupling model |
| 基金项目:本文受广西重点研发计划项目（桂科AB2208601D）资助。 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 475 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 中国地质灾害频发，如何治理、预防地质滑坡灾害是社会发展进步亟待解决的问题，当前的地质滑坡监测预警体系不能满足中国地质灾害防治的需求，本文基于GIS构建地质灾害预警模型，利用三维GIS空间信息系统获取地质数据，根据滑坡灾害易发性分区、累计降水量阈值、当日降水量阈值和未来24 h预报降水量4种因素构建地质-耦合气象模型和地质-降水综合模型，利用模糊综合评价法进行灾害预警。在实例分析环节，得出地质-气象耦合模型在极高、高级、中级及以下的预警等级下的灾害点数分别为16、9、5，栅格数分别为74182、132813、413274；地质-降水综合模型在极高、高级、中级及以下的预警等级下的灾害点数分别为8、16、6，栅格数分别为80512、132965、406792。通过对两种模型预警结果的对比分析，得出地质-气象耦合模型的预警结果精准度更高，预警结果与实际结果相符，研究结果可为相关决策提供科学依据，也可为未来的相关研究提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Geological disasters occur frequently in China， and how to control and prevent geological landslide disasters is an urgent problem for social development and progress. The current geological landslide monitoring and early warning system cannot meet the needs of geological disaster prevention and control in China. This paper builds a geological disaster early warning model based on GIS and uses three-dimensional GIS spatial information system to obtain geological data. According to the four factors of landslide susceptibility zone， cumulative precipitation threshold， daily precipitation threshold and forecast precipitation in the next 24 hours， the geological coupling meteorological model and the geological precipitation comprehensive model were constructed， and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used for disaster early warning. In the case analysis， the disaster points of the geology-meteorological coupling model are 16， 9 and 5， and the grid numbers are 74182， 132813 and 413274， respectively， under the warning levels of high， high， intermediate and below. The disaster points of geology-precipitation integrated model are 8， 16 and 6， and the grid numbers are 80512， 132965 and 406792， respectively， under the warning levels of high， high， intermediate and below. Through the comparative analysis of the early warning results of the two models， it is concluded that the accuracy of the early warning results of the geology-meteorological coupling model is higher， and the early warning results are consistent with the actual results， which provides a scientific basis for relevant decisions and a reference for future related research. |
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