| 周萌,胡龙华,李小华,高启凤,赵萌阳.基于ArcGIS的证据权和加权Logistic回归模型在木垒县地质灾害易发性分区中的应用[J].矿产勘查,2024,15(8):1466-1477 |
| 基于ArcGIS的证据权和加权Logistic回归模型在木垒县地质灾害易发性分区中的应用 |
| Application of ArcGIS-based weight of evidence and weighted logistic regression model in Mori County geological hazard susceptibility zoning |
| 投稿时间：2024-04-28 修订日期：2024-07-04 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202408011 |
| 中文关键词: 证据权 加权Logistic回归 易发性分区 木垒哈萨克自治县 |
| 英文关键词: weight of evidence weighted logistic regression susceptibility zoning Mori Kazakh Autonomous County |
| 基金项目:本文受中央返还新疆两权价款出资项目（XJDZXC2015G-07-32）资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 木垒哈萨克自治县地质条件复杂，滑坡、崩塌等地质灾害分布广泛，严重威胁当地人员生命和财产安全。地质灾害易发性评价工作是地质灾害防治工作中的重要环节，可以为地质灾害的防治和预警工作提供依据。本文使用证据权和加权Logistic回归模型对该县地质灾害易发性进行定量评价。首先对工程地质岩组、土地覆被类型、高程、坡度、坡向、局部最大高差、地表水系密度、降雨量分布共8个因子分类，计算出各因子的权重值，再采用证据权模型对这8个因子进行集成，得到研究区滑坡/崩塌易发性定量评价结果，最后采用加权Logistic回归模型对8个因子进行集成，得到研究区滑坡/崩塌易发性定量评价结果。本研究将木垒哈萨克自治县地质灾害的易发性划分为高易发、中易发和低易发分区，其中高易发区面积244.91 km2，中易发区面积2265.07 km2，低易发区10790.87 km2，地质灾害占比分别为66.54%、31.56%、1.90%。通过对地质灾害易发性分区方法的研究，有助于提高分区成果的客观性和科学性，为该县指导防灾减灾工作提供依据，减少地质灾害对人类生活、财产和自然环境的影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The Mori Kazakh Autonomous County is characterized by complex geological conditions and widespread geological hazards such as landslides and collapses， which seriously threaten the lives and property of local people. The evaluation of geological hazard vulnerability is an important link in the work of geological hazard prevention and control， which can provide a basis for geological hazard prevention and early warning. In this paper， the weight of evidence and the weighted logistic regression model are used to quantitatively evaluate the vulnerability of geological hazards. Firstly， 8 factors， such as engineering geological rock group， land cover type， elevation， slope， aspect， local maximum height difference， surface water system density， rainfall distribution， are classified， the weight value of each factor is calculated， and then the evidence weight model is used to integrate the eight factors， and the quantitative evaluation results of landslide/collapse vulnerability in the investigated area are obtained， finally， the weighted logistic regression model was used to integrate the eight factors， and the quantitative evaluation results of landslide/avalanche vulnerability were obtained. The susceptibility to Mori Kazakh Autonomous County was classified into high， medium and low susceptibility， with the area of high susceptibility being 244.91 km2， medium susceptibility being 2265.07 km2， and low susceptibility being 10790.87 km2， the proportion of geological disasters was 66.54%， 31.56% and 1.9% respectively. Through the study on the method of regionalization of geological hazard vulnerability， it is helpful to improve the objectivity and scientific results of regionalization， and provides a sentence for the county to guide the work of disaster prevention and reduction， to reduce the impact of geological disasters on human life， property and the natural environment. |
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