| 席雪萍,闫勇,袁婷婷,罗福贵,高学飞,齐超,赵吉红.基于风险区划和降雨阈值的地质灾害预警模型研究[J].矿产勘查,2025,16(3):513-520 |
| 基于风险区划和降雨阈值的地质灾害预警模型研究 |
| Study on geological hazard early-warning model based on risk zoning and rainfall threshold |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-16 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202503008 |
| 中文关键词: 地质灾害 隐患底数 风险区划 降雨阈值 模型优化 |
| 英文关键词: geological hazard potential risk base risk regionalization rainfall threshold model optimization |
| 基金项目:本文受天津市第一次地质灾害风险普查项目(HYGP-2021-C-091)和天津北部山区地质灾害风险调查与监测预警项目(SHGP-2021-B184)资助。 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 11 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 天津市蓟州区北部山区为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流易发区，对人民生命和财产安全造成了严重威胁。为减轻人防压力，发挥技防优势，本文在摸清天津市蓟州区地质灾害风险隐患底数，客观认识地质灾害风险水平的基础上，详细研究了地质灾害灾情与降雨量关系，并紧密结合风险区划结果，按照中—低风险区、高—极高风险区分别提出最大 1h、最大 3h、最大 6h、最大 12 h和最大 24 h降雨量预警阈值，以及当日、当日+前 2日、当日+前 5日、当日+前 15日的降雨预警阈值，从空间分布和时间精度两个维度优化了地质灾害预警模型，从而打破了以往整个蓟州区仅一套前期降雨量为预警判据，一发预警全区紧张的尴尬局面，大力提高了突发性地质灾害监测预警精度，有效提升了地质灾害防治精准服务能力。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The north mountainous area of Jizhou is prone to collapse, landslide and debris flow, posing a seri-ous threat to people′s lives and property. In order to reduce the pressure of civil defense and give full play to the ad-vantages of technical defense, in this paper, based on the understanding of the potential risk base of geological haz-ards in Jizhou, and the objective understanding of the risk level of geological hazards, the relationship between geo-logical disaster and rainfall is studied in detail, and the results of risk regionalization are closely combined, themaximum 1 h, maximum 3 h, maximum 6 h, maximum 12 h and maximum 24 h rainfall warning thresholds are putforward according to the middle-low risk region and the high-very high risk region, respectively, as well as the pre-cipitation warning thresholds of the day, the day +2 days, the day +5 days, the day +15 days, the geological disasterwarning model is optimized from the two dimensions of spatial distribution and time precision, thus breaking the pre-vious embarrassing situation, in which only one set of early rainfall was used as an early warning criterion for thewhole of Jizhou, and only one set of early warning for the whole region was used as an early warning, greatly improv-ing the monitoring and early warning accuracy of sudden geological disasters, effectively enhanced the geological di-saster prevention and control precision service capacity. |
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