| 耿万青,王文川,姚万森,徐宏斌,刘奇,夏永伟,李安娜.基于 AHP-信息量模型的冀北兴隆县地质灾害风险评价研究[J].矿产勘查,2026,2(2):417-427 |
| 基于 AHP-信息量模型的冀北兴隆县地质灾害风险评价研究 |
| Research on geological hazard risk assessment in Xinglong County, northern Hebei Province based on AHP-information quantity model |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-28 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202602017 |
| 中文关键词: 地质灾害 信息量法 GIS平台 风险评价 冀北 兴隆县 |
| 英文关键词: geological hazards information method GIS platform risk assessment Northern Hebei Xinglong County |
| 基金项目:本文受国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200504)与中央自然灾害防治体系建设资金，河北省自然资源厅项目“河北省兴隆县1∶5万地质灾害风险调查评价(454015)”联合资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 冀北地区地势起伏，环境地质条件复杂，地质灾害频发，为有效提升地质灾害防治的精细化水平，最大限度避免和减轻地质灾害给人民生命财产造成的损失，基于 GIS平台对冀北地区开展高精度的区域地质灾害风险评价，可为促进全省经济社会高质量安全发展提供科学依据，助力实现中国式现代化河北场景安全总目标。本文通过对冀北典型地区兴隆县进行 1∶5万、1∶1万地质灾害详细调查，采用层次分析法+信息量法的耦合模型，对研究区孕灾地质条件进行分析，计算孕灾因子权重，确定信息量值，系统评价研究区的全域地质灾害的易发程度，并依据降雨因子叠加分析确定区域危险性程度，最后叠加人口、建筑物、交通设施、土地利用等易损因子获取区域地质灾害风险评价结果。结果显示:冀北研究区发育高风险区面积约 111 km2约占研究区面积的 3.56%，主要分布在县域东部、西南、中部、东北等区域；中风险区面积约 1315 km2约占研，究区面积的 42.21%，在全区多处均有分布，主要分布在各大流域两岸。低风险区面积约 1690 km2，约，占研究区面积的 54.25%。冀北地区是河北省地质灾害防治的重点区域，应进一步做好地质灾害气象风险预警，完善群专结合监测预警网络，提升区域防灾减灾体系建设和管理水平，对构建安全、稳定、和谐的美丽河北具有重要意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to effectively improve the level of prevention and control of geological disasters and mini-mize and reduce the losses caused by geological disasters to people′s lives and property, the high-precision regionalgeological disaster risk assessment based on the GIS platform can provide a scientific basis for promoting the high-quality and safe development of the province′s economy and society, and help realize the overall goal of Chinese-style modernization of Hebei scenario. Through the detailed investigation of 1∶50000 and 1∶10000 geological disas-ters in Xinglong County, a typical area of northern Hebei, the coupling model of analytic hierarchy process + infor-mation method was used to analyze the geological conditions of Xinglong County, calculate the weight of disaster-bearing factors, determine the value of information, systematically evaluate the susceptibility of geological disastersin Xinglong County, and determine the regional risk degree according to the superposition analysis of rainfall fac-tors. Land use and other vulnerable factors were used to obtain the results of regional geological disaster risk assess-ment. The area of high-risk areas in Xinglong County in northern Hebei Province is about 111km2, accounting forabout 3.56% of the survey area, mainly distributed in the eastern, southwestern, central, and northeast regions of thecounty. The medium-risk area covers an area of about 1315 km2, accounting for about 42.21% of the survey area,and is distributed in many places in the whole region, mainly on both sides of the major river basins. The area of thelow-risk area is about 1690 km2, accounting for about 54.25% of the survey area. The northern Hebei region is akey area for the prevention and control of geological disasters in Hebei Province, and it is of great significance tobuild a safe, stable and harmonious beautiful Hebei Province by further improving the early warning of geological di-saster meteorological risks, improving the monitoring and early warning network of the combination of groups andspecialists, and improving the construction and management level of the regional disaster prevention and mitigationsystem. |
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