| 朱海霖,李佳韵,魏潇洋,谭超群,夏传安.多因子与数值模型法评价邵武市何家组泥石流危险性[J].矿产勘查,2026,17(3):545-555 |
| 多因子与数值模型法评价邵武市何家组泥石流危险性 |
| Assessment of debris flow hazard using numerical modeling and multi-factor analysis: A case study in Hejiazu, Shaowu City an3, 5 |
| 投稿时间：2025-07-20 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202603011 |
| 中文关键词: 泥石流 危险性 多因子法 数值模型法 |
| 英文关键词: debris flow hazard multi-factor analysis numerical modeling |
| 基金项目:本文受国家自然科学基金(42477165)和自然资源部丘陵山地地质灾害防治重点实验室开放基金项目(FJKLGH2024K008)联合资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 泥石流危险性评价是灾害预警与防治的关键基础工作，兼具重要的科学价值与工程意义。当前，多因子 法与数值模型法虽广泛应用，但二者在评价机制、适用条件及结果可靠性方面的系统对比仍较为缺乏。 本文以福建省邵武市大竹镇吴坑村何家组泥石流为例，通过野外勘察与多源数据融合，量化了地形、物源 和降水等因子的影响，构建并校准了 Massflow数值模型，改进了危险性等级划分标准，并综合对比两种方 法的评价结果。研究表明:数值模型模拟堆积方量为 4.584×104 m3，与实际调查值(4.6×104 m3)相对误差仅 0.35%；流通区与低洼区危险性较高，不宜布局重要设施；相较于多因子法，数值模型能够再现泥石流动态 运移过程，更精确刻画危险性的时空分布特征。研究成果可为泥石流危险性评价方法的选择与防灾工程 设计提供理论依据和实践参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Debris flow hazard assessment is fundamental to disaster early warning and mitigation, bearing sig-nificant scientific and engineering importance. Although both multi-factor analysis and numerical modeling arewidely employed, systematic comparisons of their evaluation mechanisms, applicability, and result reliability remainlimited. This study examines a debris flow event in Hejia Group, Wukeng Village, Dazhu Town, Shaowu City, FujianProvince. By integrating field survey data and multi-source monitoring information, we quantified key influencingfactors such as topography, material source, and rainfall, constructed and calibrated a Massflow numerical model,and improved the criteria for hazard classification. A comparative analysis of the two methods was conducted. Re-sults indicate that the simulated deposition volume from the numerical model is 4.584×104 m3, with a relative error of only 0.35% compared to the measured value (4.6×104 m3). High hazard levels were identified in the transport zoneand low-lying deposition area, suggesting these locations are unsuitable for critical infrastructure. Compared tomulti-factor analysis, numerical simulation effectively reproduces the dynamic process of debris flow and more accu-rately characterizes the spatiotemporal distribution of hazard intensity. The findings provide a theoretical basis andpractical reference for the selection of assessment methodologies and the design of engineering mitigation measures. |
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