| 何学洲,张振芳,陈秀法,张伟波,王杨刚,李玉龙,王靓靓.矿业项目投资评价因素分析与评价指标体系构建研究[J].矿产勘查,2026,17(7):1231-1239 |
| 矿业项目投资评价因素分析与评价指标体系构建研究 |
| Research on the analysis of investment evaluation factors and the construction of an evaluation indicator system for mining projects |
| 投稿时间：2025-08-06 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202607010 |
| 中文关键词: 矿业项目 投资环境 熵 空间分析 GIS |
| 英文关键词: mining project investment environment entropy spatial analysis GIS |
| 基金项目:本文受深地国家科技重大专项项目“战略性矿产资源综合评价”(2024ZD1002001)和中央财政地质调查项目“境外地质调查数据整合与全球矿产资源数据库构建研究”(DD202609101804)及“矿业转型发展综合评价与服务(发展中心)”(DD20243545)联合资助。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 何学洲 | 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京 100037
中国—阿拉伯国家地学合作研究中心,北京 100037 | | 张振芳 | 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京 100037
中国—阿拉伯国家地学合作研究中心,北京 100037 | | 陈秀法 | 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京 100037
中国—阿拉伯国家地学合作研究中心,北京 100037 | | 张伟波 | 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京 100037
中国—阿拉伯国家地学合作研究中心,北京 100037 | | 王杨刚 | 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京 100037
中国—阿拉伯国家地学合作研究中心,北京 100037 | | 李玉龙 | 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京 100037
中国—阿拉伯国家地学合作研究中心,北京 100037 | | 王靓靓 | 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京 100037
中国—阿拉伯国家地学合作研究中心,北京 100037 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 矿业项目投资具有金额巨大、回报周期长、投资风险高等特点，影响其投资的因素繁杂且评价周期长，难以实现量化评估。为解决这一问题，本文提出一种基于多元要素的矿业项目快速评价方法，以降低企业境外矿业项目投资风险、提高投资成功率，为企业投资决策提供支撑；在研究过程中，首先梳理矿业项目资源与投资环境两类核心属性，构建定量与定性相结合的分析框架，建立包含资源品质、潜在价值和运营成本 3个一级指标、10个二级指标的综合评价指标体系，随后采用熵值赋权法，通过归一化处理、熵值计算、信息熵冗余度分析及指标权重赋值等步骤完成资源价值量化评价，同时基于 GIS空间分析方法对项目周边投资环境进行空间建模，运用距离衰减赋分评级矩阵实现投资环境综合量化评估，最后基于上述模型设计开发原型系统，并以全球 55个镍矿项目为样本开展实例应用；结果表明，该综合评价方法能够有效量化矿业项目的资源价值与投资环境水平，原型系统可实现评价过程的规范化、高效化，验证了模型及方法的有效性与实用性；综上，该方法能够有效解决传统评价难以量化的痛点，可为企业海外矿业项目投资评价提供科学的技术支撑和实践指导，具有一定的理论意义与工程应用价值。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Mining project investment is characterized by large capital scale, long return cycle and high invest-ment risk. There are numerous factors affecting mining project investment, and the evaluation process is long, mak-ing quantitative evaluation difficult. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a scientific and feasible multi-factor-based rapid evaluation method for mining projects, aiming to reduce the investment risk of enterprises′ over-seas mining projects, improve the investment success rate, and provide support for enterprises′ investment deci-sions. In the research process, first, we sorted out two core attributes of mining projects, namely resources and in-vestment environment, constructed an analytical framework combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, and es-tablished a comprehensive evaluation index system including 3 primary indicators (resource quality, potential valueand operating cost) and 10 secondary indicators. Subsequently, the entropy weight method was adopted to completethe quantitative evaluation of resource value through steps such as normalization processing, entropy calculation, in-formation entropy redundancy analysis and index weight assignment. At the same time, based on the GIS spatialanalysis method, spatial modeling was carried out on the investment environment around the mining project, and adistance decay scoring and rating matrix was used to realize the comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the invest-ment environment of the mining project. Finally, a prototype system was designed and developed based on the abovemodel, and an example application was carried out with 55 nickel mine projects around the world as samples. Theresults show that the comprehensive evaluation method can effectively quantify the resource value and investmentenvironment level of mining projects, and the prototype system can realize the standardization and efficiency of theevaluation process, which verifies the effectiveness and practicability of the model and method. In summary, thismethod can effectively solve the pain point that traditional evaluation is difficult to quantify, can provide scientifictechnical support and practical guidance for enterprises′ overseas mining project investment evaluation, and has cer-tain theoretical significance and engineering application value. |
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