| 赵鹏.基于 Logistic-BP耦合模型的维西县斜坡地质灾害易发性精细化评价[J].矿产勘查,2026,17(7):1240-1251 |
| 基于 Logistic-BP耦合模型的维西县斜坡地质灾害易发性精细化评价 |
| Refined evaluation of slope geological hazard susceptibility in Weixi County based on Logistic-BP coupling model |
| 投稿时间：2025-02-24 |
| DOI：10.20008/j.kckc.202607011 |
| 中文关键词: 斜坡地质灾害 地质灾害预测 logistic回归 BP神经网络 易发性分区 |
| 英文关键词: slope geological disasters geological disaster prediction logistic regression BP neural network susceptibility zoning |
| 基金项目:本文受云南省地质灾害隐患识别中心建设(云财资环[2021]22号)资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 维西县斜坡地质灾害频发，对当地基础设施、居民生命财产安全及区域经济发展构成了严重威胁。本文以维西县斜坡地质灾害为研究对象，筛选出坡度、地形起伏、工程地质岩组等因子，通过二元 Logistic回归分析去除噪声因子，并基于 BP神经网络构建易发性预测模型。将维西县斜坡地质灾害易发区划分为高易发、中易发和低易发分区，其中高易发区面积 1322.38 km2，中易发区面积 1527.19 km2，低易发区面积 1624.43 km2。结果显示,该模型预测精度较高，能精准反映区域间差异，具有较强的应用价值，为该县的防灾减灾工作提供了科学依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The frequent occurrence of slope geological disasters in Weixi County poses a serious threat to localinfrastructure, residents′ life and property safety and regional economic development. In this paper, the slope geo-logical disasters in Weixi County are taken as the research object, and the factors such as slope, topographic reliefand engineering rock group are selected. The noise factors are removed by binary logistic regression analysis, and the susceptibility prediction model is constructed based on BP neural network. The susceptibility zoning of slopegeological disasters in Weixi County is divided into high susceptibility, medium susceptibility and low susceptibil-ity. The area of high susceptibility area is 1322.38 km2, the area of medium susceptibility area is 1527.19 km2, and the area of low susceptibility area is 1624.43 km2. The results show that the model has high prediction accuracy, canaccurately reflect regional differences, and has strong application value, which provides a scientific basis for disas-ter prevention and mitigation in the county. |
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